I imagine it will continue to look much the same as it has for millions of years plus or minus a bit of green, and possibly ever so slightly either more or less smoggy than it currently is.

Oh, you mean like people and stuff? I'd wager there's probably going to be some. They'll probably still be consuming media and conversing in whatever the currently popular format is. There will be work getting done and work that no longer needs doing, career fields emerging and ending.

Kinda pretty much the way it's always been, I bet, you know with the way everything's always changing and yet remains the same.

More wars; there could be even a world war! All caused by imperialist competition between powers: the US, China, the EU, India, Brazil, Russia, etc. More nationalism (even with continental flavor like European nationalism), more militarism, more revolts, and possibly internationalist revolutions to unite the global working class against all wars and nationalisms!

There are many possible futures, but the one that will come to pass is the one we collectively allow to happen. To a degree, of course.

A future that I like to imagine is one where LLM scaling laws hit a plateau. Plateau-level LLMs become commodities. They get distilled into small sizes. Everybody can have plateau-level local LLMs. People discover that it’s better to be a local-powered independent centaur than to be a reverse centaur for a mega-corp.

I predict that most predictions in this thread will be wrong. Other than that, who the heck knows?

• ejhooooon

  last Sunday at 2:03 PM

  I second that. Even in 3 to 5 months who knows.

But what if a decentrilized internet came along that offerd 90/10 split 90% gos to user (,node) and 10% gos to upkeep and maintenance of decentrilized Internet. That alone would change the dynamics of all industrys.

• bruce511

  yesterday at 5:00 AM

  I'm intrigued.

  A 90/10 split of what exactly? I mean, where does the "100" come from?

  I'm guessing you mean some sort of subscription approach? But if node servers make 90% of the money, how would you stop all machines just being nodes? How would you stop larger nodes from dominating traffic?

  I think your thesis warrants a lot more detail.

More plumbers and carpenters (or jobs which AI cannot take on, yet).

LLM's will be confidently wrong at a much higher token-per-second rate

In the West, decline of living standards and continued decay of institutions. Probably very few organizations actually benefit from LLMs, mostly bankers.

Elsewhere? who knows

I believe there will be a massive shift from a lot of white-collar jobs to blue-collar jobs, as these jobs will be the ones most affected by AI. I believe Western countries will be poorer than they are now, and countries in Asia and Africa will become richer as more money will flow into their manufacturing and Agricultural industries.

• Nicholas_C

  yesterday at 8:14 PM

  >I believe Western countries will be poorer than they are now, and countries in Asia and Africa will become richer as more money will flow into their manufacturing and Agricultural industries.

  I believe the opposite will happen as the post-WWII liberal international order continues to fragment. Countries that have relied on complicated supply chains/globalization (e.g., China) will struggle as the international order fragments and the world can't rely on these things anymore.

• bilsbie

  last Saturday at 8:00 PM

  Maybe more service oriented than blue collar.

Hotter, with more microplastics and pollution. More extinct species. More counties with nukes. More hungry people. More trillionaires. Less to go around.

I hope I’m in the woods and not in an office.

You can predict by using one of several techniques:

1. Naive prediction: it will be similar to now

2. Linear regression: look at several parameters associated with LLM (speed, quality, accuracy, etc.) and create linear regressions from these parameters

2a. Polynomial regression: same as above, but fit a polynomial

3. Group prediction: select 20 friends, ask them to make predictions, then find the average(s)

...and many more with increasing levels of complexity

Greater wealth inequality. More authoritarian policies as climate refugees from the global south put pressure on classically liberal governments.

Less freedom of movement. Most of the Western world living in a surveillance state.

Climate breakdown manifesting itself with bigger and more frequent wildfires, floods and hurricanes. Potentially the first sign of the AMOC collapse.

An economy begining to become untethered from labor. Feudal conditions from a rent seeking class of supranational corporations . Social stratification across ownership: most people don't own anything at all.

I predict that the world would be better for the Scandinavian countries. All other countries - I have no idea.

And for LLM & AI, I predict that the tech bros overestimate the pace of change, while the average joe underestimate the new capabilities.

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