i_think_so
today at 9:18 AM
> We can literally observe cosmic microwave background and it fits our prediction that the universe was denser and hotter.
I can't observe that, because I don't have the gear. (Nor the time, budget, inclination nor training, for that matter. :-) But I am happy to admit the possibility that some of those observations, as reported in the literature, are correct.
However, unlike a depressingly large percentage of my former scientific colleagues, I also appreciate just how much of what gets reported in the literature, from the conclusions all the way back to the raw data, is anything from sloppily wrong to flat out lies. Witness the decades-long fiasco in genetics that is only this past month being corrected:
Before: https://www.nature.com/articles/437047a
After: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08816
TLDR: The original work by the CSAC reported only a fraction of the actually relevant data and hid the remainder where nobody was going to look. This was not the kind of Reproducibility Crisis mess, where an undergrad isn't paying attention when he grabs the electrophoresis gel off the shelf and then writes down the wrong brand name in his lab book. This was fraud. They intentionally misrepresented the data and hence the conclusions by an order of magnitude, which allowed them to delude the whole world for decades that "humans are 98.8% the same as chimps!"
Many people had their entire worldview swayed by this pronouncement, myself included. I don't like being lied to.
So yeah, you'll have to forgive me if I'm a bit skeptical when it comes to scientific observations and reportage that I'm a few $million shy for confirming myself. And I'll continue to think poorly of those who have been making lucrative careers out of doing "well-established" physics that "everybody" "accepts", only to have to quietly admit under scrutiny that their predictions didn't work out quite as nicely as the popular press has told us.
Furthermore,
> It is a scientific theory.
It is a scientific hypothesis. It has not been subjected to repeated experimental trials or observations and found to be correct.
A hypothesis does not become "well-established" simply because every college professor whose salary depends upon supporting the grant authority's narrative repeats it.
I am fully aware that some people (present company excluded; I'm not placing any blame here) have watered down the definition of these terms. They are wrong. I do not consent to and will not be bullied into accepting changes to my language. Especially nothing as important as the language of science.
> You might be confusing the established big bang with the more speculative cosmic inflation model. They're very closely related.
Perhaps. I was never too terribly interested in things "smaller than an electron"[1] or larger than a whale.
Lerner's arguments[2], particularly on relative elemental abundances, are persuasive to me. That may be because during my formative years I was a bit preoccupied with H vs D, because deuterated compounds for the NMR were too expensive for me to just play around with as I liked, so I had to tinker with spectroscopy/spectrophotometry instead. In any case, he's right. You can't have a cosmological constant be one value to account for the D and another value to account for the He3.
As for the CMB, he addresses that as well, though once again I haven't done the work to confirm either side myself.
Lerner has a whole basket full of other arguments as well, but I'm not a fan of lazy people posting Youtube links to hour long videos and saying "watch this!", so I shan't be a hypocrite. I believe that pdf should give a good flavor of it. It's been a while since I read it and I only skimmed it now, but I believe it a good representative sample of his other work.
[1] PS: Yes, I know, I know. Stop being pedantic. This site is a hobby and I'm not about to cheat and get a chatbot to write me a 12 page essay every time I want to save a few words. I get to abuse quotation marks when I'm feeling lazy.
[2] See sections II and IV in particular: https://web.archive.org/web/20260429053749/https://www.resea...
dudisubekti
today at 10:27 AM
I think you have too high an expectation of the scientific community.
People work there, and it will have people's dramas and problems, like everywhere else: fraud, crime, jealousy, simple mistakes, etc.
Despite their imperfections, the reason people with power trust their consensus more is because they are a lot more useful than other groups of people.
If you reject this statement, you can start by joining the Amish, since virtually all modern technology is built on top of the scientific community's consensus and work.
i_think_so
today at 11:44 AM
> I think you have too high an expectation of the scientific community.
Indeed, I did. I joined expecting it to be above mere politics. I paid for my folly.
> People work there, and it will have people's dramas and problems, like everywhere else: fraud, crime, jealousy, simple mistakes, etc.
Yes, but it's far worse in the scientific communities. In the "real world" the average person is way better at doing their average job than the average scientist publishing their work.
Imagine even a civilizationally incompetent modern society today (without naming any names). Now imagine what it would be like if >50% of the time you got into a taxi something far worse than the expected result occurred. You got: taken to the wrong destination; or cheated by the driver; or woke up in a bathtub missing your kidneys; etc. Extend that behavior to even a tiny fraction of the whole. That society would have collapsed already.
Compare that to any journal you please and let's see what percentage of their published works can be verified. Even for the "better" fields their rates are shockingly bad. Some are below 50%.
I don't know about you, but my standards for the behavior of scientists are considerably higher than that for taxi drivers.
> Despite their imperfections, the reason people with power trust their consensus more is because they are a lot more useful than other groups of people.
Hard disagree. The reason people with power "trust" scientific consensus is because they manufacture that consensus by controlling the funding. This is fact. It's not pleasant, and is far from uncontroversial. But it is what it is.
The people with power today who are telling you that <topic X> is "settled science" are the spiritual (and in some cases genetic!) descendants of the people who were telling Columbus that he was going to sail off the edge of the Earth and locking up Galileo. Eppur si muove!
If you want to naively believe that calling one's self a big-s Scientist makes one, if not immune then perhaps we could say resistant, to that fraud, crime, corruption, etc. then I suppose you're entitled to that opinion. I look at the data on their output and my vote is to trash the lot of them and start over. They've fallen that far from grace.
I'm inclined to trust the ancient Greeks, sure. Modern scientists, not so much.
> If you reject this statement, you can start by joining the Amish, since virtually all modern technology is built on top of the scientific community's consensus and work.
Unfortunately the Amish are automatically suspicious of the academically tainted such as myself. Otherwise I'd love to chill with them. Their lives are blissfully stress-free compared to ours.
suuuuuuuu
today at 11:14 AM
Your reference here is a 33 year old paper whose quoted observations and theoretical claims are totally out of date. The measured light element abundances are now consistent (and have been for decades).
The black body distribution of the CMB is the (confirmed, of course) prediction of the Big Bang. The structure, age, etc. all depend on the cosmological model, and the claims that no such model can explain observations is ridiculous, given the counterexample of the \Lambda CDM model, the cornerstone of the field for decades now, that explains them all.
It's almost impressive how obstinately you've convinced yourself of something so blatantly wrong and out of date, using only a reference predating the entire modern era of cosmology that you even admitted to not having read "for a while." A far, far cry from engaging seriously in a topic.
Like with the frontier LLMs, seeing commentary on this site on topics that I'm an expert in makes me seriously doubt whether I should lend any credence at all to what's said about those that I'm not.